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Assumptions
10.4%
Market is pricing 10.4%— you agree
Actually grew +1.3%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 9.1pts FASTER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
7.25%
7.3% derived for this companybeta 0.57 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 7.3% = 4.7% risk-free + 0.57 × 4.5% premium · treated as all-equitycost of debt not derivable; risk-free + 1.5pts assumed; no debt figure; treated as all-equity
Fair value DCF model
$554.92
+0.4%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $552.85Enterprise value 141.0B
Bear $370.43(5.4% growth)Bull $826.07(15.4%)
market $552.85
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices 10.4%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
27% the 10 forecast years73% terminal value
Same industry · SIC 2834 · trailing P/E for context