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Assumptions
2.8%
Market is pricing 2.8%— you agree
Actually grew +5.3%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 2.5pts SLOWER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
6.71%
6.7% derived for this companybeta 0.50 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 7.0% = 4.7% risk-free + 0.50 × 4.5% premium · 6% debt at 3.8%, taxed at 23%
Fair value DCF model
$116.20
+0.1%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $116.13Enterprise value 201.9B
Bear $76.58(-2.2% growth)Bull $175.81(7.8%)
market $116.13
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices 2.8%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
30% the 10 forecast years70% terminal value
Same industry · SIC 2834 · trailing P/E for context