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Assumptions
-1.5%
Market is pricing -1.5%— you agree
Actually grew +1.2%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 2.7pts SLOWER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
5.64%
5.6% derived for this companybeta 0.30 (1253d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 6.0% = 4.7% risk-free + 0.30 × 4.5% premium · 13% debt at 4.5%, taxed at 36%beta 0.30 clamped to 0.30
Fair value DCF model
$265.22
-0.2%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $265.79Enterprise value 468.9B
Bear $170.68(-6.5% growth)Bull $410.55(3.5%)
market $265.79
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices -1.5%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
26% the 10 forecast years74% terminal value
Same industry · SIC 2834 · trailing P/E for context