Research / Stock / LLY

LLY

ELI LILLY & Co

FY2025Mkt cap 1.16T

1233.66

-13.27 -1.06%

close 2026-08-25

LLY reports no free cash flow we can read, so this model is discounting net income instead. That is a different model — net income carries non-cash charges and ignores capital spending — and its answer should be read as a rougher one.

Assumptions

FCF growth rate

12.9%

Market is pricing 12.9%— you agree

No trailing FCF growth rate — the series crosses zero or is too short, and a CAGR through a negative is not a number worth printing.

Projection years

10 yrs

Terminal growth

3.00%

Discount rate (WACC)

7.09%

7.1% derived for this company beta 0.58 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 7.3% = 4.7% risk-free + 0.58 × 4.5% premium · 4% debt at 2.1%, taxed at 20%

Fair value DCF model

$1230.49

-0.3%

At the market's assumptions

Current price $1233.66Enterprise value 1.16T

Bear $822.22 (7.9% growth)Bull $1827.08 (17.9%)

market $1233.66

Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices 12.9%

Y10

Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10

24% the 10 forecast years76% terminal value

Over three quarters of this valuation sits beyond the forecast horizon, in a single assumption about growth forever. Lengthening the projection or lowering terminal growth moves that share.

Same industry · SIC 2834 · trailing P/E for context

JNJP/E 25658.2B ABBVP/E 113470.0B MRKP/E 21386.8B ABTP/E 31201.8B PFEP/E 21162.5B VRTXP/E 36140.4Bthis P/E: 54

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Assumptions

Fair valuei DCF model

Same industryi · SIC 2834 · trailing P/E for context

Assumptions

Fair valuei DCF model

Same industryi · SIC 2834 · trailing P/E for context

Fair value DCF model

Same industry · SIC 2834 · trailing P/E for context

Fair value DCF model

Same industry · SIC 2834 · trailing P/E for context