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Assumptions
-6.3%
Market is pricing -6.3%— you agree
Actually grew -5.7%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 0.6pts SLOWER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
5.52%
5.5% derived for this companybeta 0.40 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 6.5% = 4.7% risk-free + 0.40 × 4.5% premium · 30% debt at 4.1%, taxed at 21%effective tax rate unusable; US statutory 21% assumed
Fair value DCF model
$28.68
+0.4%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $28.57Enterprise value 163.1B
Bear $18.42(-11.3% growth)Bull $44.70(-1.3%)
market $28.57
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices -6.3%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
31% the 10 forecast years69% terminal value
Same industry · SIC 2834 · trailing P/E for context