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Assumptions
-10.3%
Market is pricing -10.3%— you agree
Actually grew -0.7%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 9.6pts SLOWER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
6.05%
6.0% derived for this companybeta 0.30 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 6.0% = 4.7% risk-free + 0.30 × 4.5% premium · treated as all-equitybeta 0.29 clamped to 0.30; no market cap; capital structure assumed all-equity
Fair value DCF model
$68.04
+0.2%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $67.92Enterprise value 138.6B
Bear $44.88(-15.3% growth)Bull $104.33(-5.3%)
market $67.92
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices -10.3%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
41% the 10 forecast years59% terminal value
Same industry · SIC 2834 · trailing P/E for context