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Assumptions
40.8%
Market is pricing 40.8%— you agree
Actually grew +39.3%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 1.5pts FASTER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
15.07%
15.1% derived for this companybeta 2.31 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 15.1% = 4.7% risk-free + 2.31 × 4.5% premium · treated as all-equitycost of debt not derivable; risk-free + 1.5pts assumed; no market cap; capital structure assumed all-equity
Fair value DCF model
$153.64
-0.2%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $153.88Enterprise value 200.5B
Bear $111.50(35.8% growth)Bull $210.50(45.8%)
market $153.88
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices 40.8%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
36% the 10 forecast years64% terminal value
Same industry · Software · trailing P/E for context