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Assumptions
20.1%
Market is pricing 20.1%— you agree
Actually grew +3.6%/yrFCF, 2021–2026 — the market is pricing 16.5pts FASTER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
9.74%
9.7% derived for this companybeta 1.13 (1232d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 9.8% = 4.7% risk-free + 1.13 × 4.5% premium · 1% debt at 7.6%, taxed at 19%
Fair value DCF model
$492.98
+0.3%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $491.71Enterprise value 3.66T
Bear $340.47(15.1% growth)Bull $709.76(25.1%)
market $491.71
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices 20.1%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
31% the 10 forecast years69% terminal value
Same industry · Software · trailing P/E for context