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Assumptions
0.8%
Market is pricing 0.8%— you agree
Actually grew +28.6%/yrFCF, 2021–2026 — the market is pricing 27.8pts SLOWER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
9.64%
9.6% derived for this companybeta 1.24 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 10.3% = 4.7% risk-free + 1.24 × 4.5% premium · 7% debt at 2.2%, taxed at 22%
Fair value DCF model
$205.59
-0.1%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $205.69Enterprise value 189.8B
Bear $142.77(-4.2% growth)Bull $298.38(5.8%)
market $205.69
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices 0.8%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
49% the 10 forecast years51% terminal value
Same industry · Software · trailing P/E for context