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Assumptions
-0.9%
Market is pricing -0.9%— you agree
Actually grew +13.2%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 14.1pts SLOWER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
9.80%
9.8% derived for this companybeta 1.22 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 10.2% = 4.7% risk-free + 1.22 × 4.5% premium · 5% debt at 4.2%, taxed at 18%
Fair value DCF model
$272.94
-0.4%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $273.92Enterprise value 112.0B
Bear $190.80(-5.9% growth)Bull $394.43(4.1%)
market $273.92
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices -0.9%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
52% the 10 forecast years48% terminal value
Same industry · Software · trailing P/E for context