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Assumptions
4.6%
Market is pricing 4.6%— you agree
Actually grew +21.1%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 16.5pts SLOWER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
10.10%
10.1% derived for this companybeta 1.29 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 10.5% = 4.7% risk-free + 1.29 × 4.5% premium · 6% debt at 4.1%, taxed at 20%
Fair value DCF model
$358.32
+0.2%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $357.46Enterprise value 99.9B
Bear $248.80(-0.4% growth)Bull $518.63(9.6%)
market $357.46
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices 4.6%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
47% the 10 forecast years53% terminal value
Same industry · Software · trailing P/E for context