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Assumptions
19.2%
Market is pricing 19.2%— you agree
Actually grew +34.0%/yrFCF, 2021–2026 — the market is pricing 14.8pts SLOWER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
12.06%
12.1% derived for this companybeta 1.64 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 12.1% = 4.7% risk-free + 1.64 × 4.5% premium · treated as all-equityeffective tax rate unusable; US statutory 21% assumed; no market cap; capital structure assumed all-equity
Fair value DCF model
$184.85
-0.3%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $185.38Enterprise value 46.3B
Bear $129.93(14.2% growth)Bull $262.41(24.2%)
market $185.38
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices 19.2%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
40% the 10 forecast years60% terminal value
Same industry · Software · trailing P/E for context