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Assumptions
27.8%
Market is pricing 27.8%— you agree
Actually grew -13.9%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 41.7pts FASTER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
10.00%
10.0% derived for this companybeta 1.23 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 10.3% = 4.7% risk-free + 1.23 × 4.5% premium · 5% debt at 6.2%, taxed at 12%cost of debt not derivable; risk-free + 1.5pts assumed
Fair value DCF model
$260.80
+0.3%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $260.05Enterprise value 236.7B
Bear $182.09(22.8% growth)Bull $370.76(32.8%)
market $260.05
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices 27.8%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
27% the 10 forecast years73% terminal value
Same industry · Semiconductors · trailing P/E for context