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Assumptions
30.1%
Market is pricing 30.1%— you agree
Actually grew +11.0%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 19.1pts FASTER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
12.90%
12.9% derived for this companybeta 1.86 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 13.1% = 4.7% risk-free + 1.86 × 4.5% premium · 2% debt at 4.2%, taxed at 25%
Fair value DCF model
$478.75
-0.3%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $480.04Enterprise value 379.6B
Bear $340.51(25.1% growth)Bull $669.62(35.1%)
market $480.04
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices 30.1%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
36% the 10 forecast years64% terminal value
Same industry · Semiconductors · trailing P/E for context