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Assumptions
-17.1%
Market is pricing -17.1%— you agree
Actually grew -1.4%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 15.7pts SLOWER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
5.34%
5.3% derived for this companybeta 0.41 (1232d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 6.6% = 4.7% risk-free + 0.41 × 4.5% premium · 35% debt at 3.9%, taxed at 23%
Fair value DCF model
$64.74
-0.4%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $65.00Enterprise value 31.8B
Bear $42.64(-22.1% growth)Bull $100.34(-12.1%)
market $65.00
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices -17.1%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
46% the 10 forecast years54% terminal value
Same industry · Managed Health · trailing P/E for context