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Assumptions
-0.1%
Market is pricing -0.1%— you agree
Actually grew -20.0%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 19.9pts FASTER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
5.84%
5.8% derived for this companybeta 0.43 (1232d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 6.6% = 4.7% risk-free + 0.43 × 4.5% premium · 27% debt at 4.4%, taxed at 16%
Fair value DCF model
$398.85
-0.0%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $398.87Enterprise value 88.0B
Bear $258.03(-5.1% growth)Bull $614.03(4.9%)
market $398.87
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices -0.1%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
27% the 10 forecast years73% terminal value
Same industry · Managed Health · trailing P/E for context