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Assumptions
-1.1%
Market is pricing -1.1%— you agree
Actually grew -4.4%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 3.3pts FASTER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
6.25%
6.3% derived for this companybeta 0.42 (1232d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 6.6% = 4.7% risk-free + 0.42 × 4.5% premium · 17% debt at 5.2%, taxed at 13%
Fair value DCF model
$396.00
-0.1%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $396.59Enterprise value 359.4B
Bear $258.65(-6.1% growth)Bull $605.71(3.9%)
market $396.59
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices -1.1%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
31% the 10 forecast years69% terminal value
Same industry · Managed Health · trailing P/E for context