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Assumptions
-1.0%
Market is pricing -1.0%— you agree
Actually grew +3.0%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 4.0pts SLOWER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
5.56%
5.6% derived for this companybeta 0.30 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 6.0% = 4.7% risk-free + 0.30 × 4.5% premium · 14% debt at 3.3%, taxed at 20%beta 0.29 clamped to 0.30
Fair value DCF model
$194.06
+0.1%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $193.92Enterprise value 302.1B
Bear $124.66(-6.0% growth)Bull $300.67(4.0%)
market $193.92
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices -1.0%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
25% the 10 forecast years75% terminal value
Same industry · SIC 2111 · trailing P/E for context