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Assumptions
-10.3%
Market is pricing -10.3%— you agree
Actually grew +2.2%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 12.5pts SLOWER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
5.54%
5.5% derived for this companybeta 0.30 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 6.0% = 4.7% risk-free + 0.30 × 4.5% premium · 19% debt at 4.6%, taxed at 26%beta 0.15 clamped to 0.30
Fair value DCF model
$67.98
-0.1%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $68.07Enterprise value 113.6B
Bear $44.01(-15.3% growth)Bull $105.83(-5.3%)
market $68.07
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices -10.3%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
36% the 10 forecast years64% terminal value
Same industry · SIC 2111 · trailing P/E for context