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Assumptions
11.0%
Market is pricing 11.0%— you agree
Actually grew +0.9%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 10.1pts FASTER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
8.85%
8.8% derived for this companybeta 1.09 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 9.6% = 4.7% risk-free + 1.09 × 4.5% premium · 9% debt at 1.6%, taxed at 24%
Fair value DCF model
$154.59
-0.2%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $154.96Enterprise value 86.8B
Bear $105.25(6.0% growth)Bull $226.40(16.0%)
market $154.96
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices 11.0%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
34% the 10 forecast years66% terminal value
Same industry · SIC 3600 · trailing P/E for context