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Assumptions
0.3%
Market is pricing 0.3%— you agree
Actually grew +58.6%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 58.3pts SLOWER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
6.41%
6.4% derived for this companybeta 0.49 (1232d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 6.9% = 4.7% risk-free + 0.49 × 4.5% premium · 10% debt at 3.1%, taxed at 37%
Fair value DCF model
$199.98
+0.0%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $199.89Enterprise value 399.0B
Bear $131.03(-4.7% growth)Bull $304.69(5.3%)
market $199.89
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices 0.3%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
30% the 10 forecast years70% terminal value
Same industry · Oil & Gas · trailing P/E for context