Research / Stock / CSX

CSX

CSX CORP

FY2025Mkt cap 95.8B

51.51

+0.07 +0.14%

close 2026-08-25

Assumptions

FCF growth rate

13.7%

Market is pricing 13.7%— you agree

Actually grew -8.3%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 22.0pts FASTER than history

Projection years

10 yrs

Terminal growth

3.00%

Discount rate (WACC)

7.34%

7.3% derived for this company beta 0.76 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 8.1% = 4.7% risk-free + 0.76 × 4.5% premium · 17% debt at 4.5%, taxed at 23%

Fair value DCF model

$51.63

+0.2%

At the market's assumptions

Current price $51.51Enterprise value 96.0B

Bear $34.63 (8.7% growth)Bull $76.39 (18.7%)

market $51.51

Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices 13.7%

Y10

Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10

25% the 10 forecast years75% terminal value

Over three quarters of this valuation sits beyond the forecast horizon, in a single assumption about growth forever. Lengthening the projection or lowering terminal growth moves that share.

Same industry · SIC 4011 · trailing P/E for context

UNPP/E 26183.7Bthis P/E: 33

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Assumptions

Fair valuei DCF model

Same industryi · SIC 4011 · trailing P/E for context

Assumptions

Fair valuei DCF model

Same industryi · SIC 4011 · trailing P/E for context

Fair value DCF model

Same industry · SIC 4011 · trailing P/E for context

Fair value DCF model

Same industry · SIC 4011 · trailing P/E for context