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Assumptions
-3.9%
Market is pricing -3.9%— you agree
Actually grew +11.8%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 15.7pts SLOWER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
5.84%
5.8% derived for this companybeta 0.30 (1232d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 6.0% = 4.7% risk-free + 0.30 × 4.5% premium · 12% debt at 6.2%, taxed at 31%beta 0.25 clamped to 0.30; cost of debt not derivable; risk-free + 1.5pts assumed
Fair value DCF model
$329.34
+0.4%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $328.06Enterprise value 63.9B
Bear $213.20(-8.9% growth)Bull $508.81(1.1%)
market $328.06
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices -3.9%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
31% the 10 forecast years69% terminal value
Same industry · Drug Distribution · trailing P/E for context