Research / Stock / SPOT
S
SPOT
Spotify Technology S.A.
552.57
+14.73 +2.74%
close 2026-08-25
SPOT reports no free cash flow we can read, so this model is discounting net income instead. That is a different model — net income carries non-cash charges and ignores capital spending — and its answer should be read as a rougher one.
Assumptions
19.6%
Market is pricing 19.6%— you agree
Actually grew +72.2%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 52.6pts SLOWER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
10.77%
10.8% derived for this company beta 1.35 (1253d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 10.8% = 4.7% risk-free + 1.35 × 4.5% premium · treated as all-equity cost of debt not derivable; risk-free + 1.5pts assumed; no market cap; capital structure assumed all-equity
Fair value
$553.39
+0.1%
At the market's assumptionsCurrent price $552.57Enterprise value 113.9B
Bear $385.14 (14.6% growth)Bull $791.93 (24.6%)
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices 19.6%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
35% the 10 forecast years65% terminal value