Research / Stock / PGR
P
PGR
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/
222.09
-1.83 -0.82%
close 2026-08-25
Assumptions
-14.6%
Market is pricing -14.6%— you agree
Actually grew +20.8%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 35.4pts SLOWER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
6.04%
6.0% derived for this company beta 0.34 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 6.2% = 4.7% risk-free + 0.34 × 4.5% premium · 5% debt at 4.0%, taxed at 20%
Fair value
$221.69
-0.2%
At the market's assumptionsCurrent price $222.09Enterprise value 129.9B
Bear $148.72 (-19.6% growth)Bull $336.95 (-9.6%)
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices -14.6%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
49% the 10 forecast years51% terminal value