Research / Stock / PDD

PDD

PDD Holdings Inc.

FY2025CNY → USD approx

87.75

+0.68 +0.78%

close 2026-08-25

PDD reports no free cash flow we can read, so this model is discounting net income instead. That is a different model — net income carries non-cash charges and ignores capital spending — and its answer should be read as a rougher one.

Assumptions

FCF growth rate

15.0%

Market is pricing 15.0%— you agree

Actually grew +141.8%/yrFCF, 2016–2020 — the market is pricing 126.8pts SLOWER than history

Projection years

10 yrs

Terminal growth

3.00%

Discount rate (WACC)

10.26%

10.3% derived for this company beta 1.24 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 10.3% = 4.7% risk-free + 1.24 × 4.5% premium · treated as all-equity cost of debt not derivable; risk-free + 1.5pts assumed; no market cap; capital structure assumed all-equity

Fair value DCF model

$87.85

+0.1%

At the market's assumptions

Current price $87.75Enterprise value 500.2B

Bear $60.75 (10.0% growth)Bull $126.70 (20.0%)

market $87.75

Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices 15.0%

Y10

Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10

37% the 10 forecast years63% terminal value

Same industry · Platform Services · trailing P/E for context

MAP/E 36543.0B UBERP/E 17165.4B DASHP/E 110102.7B MELIP/E 51101.2Bthis P/E: —

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Assumptions

Fair valuei DCF model

Same industryi · Platform Services · trailing P/E for context

Assumptions

Fair valuei DCF model

Same industryi · Platform Services · trailing P/E for context

Fair value DCF model

Same industry · Platform Services · trailing P/E for context

Fair value DCF model

Same industry · Platform Services · trailing P/E for context