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Assumptions
23.6%
Market is pricing 23.6%— you agree
Actually grew +33.4%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 9.8pts SLOWER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
10.16%
10.2% derived for this companybeta 1.22 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 10.2% = 4.7% risk-free + 1.22 × 4.5% premium · treated as all-equitycost of debt not derivable; risk-free + 1.5pts assumed
Fair value DCF model
$339.08
-0.2%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $339.90Enterprise value 226.8B
Bear $235.74(18.6% growth)Bull $484.66(28.6%)
market $339.90
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices 23.6%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
30% the 10 forecast years70% terminal value
Same industry · SIC 3577 · trailing P/E for context