Research / Stock / MRNA
M
MRNA
Moderna, Inc. · NASDAQ · Biotech
158.83
+19.94 +14.36%
close 2026-08-25
Assumptions
18.0%
Market-implied growth can't be solved here (base FCF is not positive).
No trailing FCF growth rate — the series crosses zero or is too short, and a CAGR through a negative is not a number worth printing.
10 yrs
3.00%
10.59%
10.6% derived for this company beta 1.33 (1232d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 10.7% = 4.7% risk-free + 1.33 × 4.5% premium · 2% debt at 6.2%, taxed at 13% cost of debt not derivable; risk-free + 1.5pts assumed
Fair value
$-211.72
-233.3%
OvervaluedCurrent price $158.83Enterprise value -83.6B
Bear $-303.82 (13.0% growth)Bull $-147.01 (23.0%)
Today's market price is above even the bull case · band = your growth ±5pts, same model
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
36% the 10 forecast years64% terminal value