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Assumptions
-13.8%
Market is pricing -13.8%— you agree
Actually grew -7.6%/yrFCF, 2020–2025 — the market is pricing 6.2pts SLOWER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
10.32%
10.3% derived for this companybeta 1.25 (1232d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 10.3% = 4.7% risk-free + 1.25 × 4.5% premium · treated as all-equitycost of debt not derivable; risk-free + 1.5pts assumed; no debt figure; treated as all-equity
Fair value DCF model
$13.99
+0.3%
At the market's assumptions
Current price $13.95Enterprise value 55.7B
Bear $10.39(-18.8% growth)Bull $19.29(-8.8%)
market $13.95
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices -13.8%