Research / Stock / CNQ
C
CNQ
CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES Ltd
49.59
-1.09 -2.15%
close 2026-08-25
CNQ reports no free cash flow we can read, so this model is discounting net income instead. That is a different model — net income carries non-cash charges and ignores capital spending — and its answer should be read as a rougher one.
Assumptions
-3.1%
Market is pricing -3.1%— you agree
Actually grew +127.5%/yrFCF, 2015–2018 — the market is pricing 130.6pts SLOWER than history
10 yrs
3.00%
7.81%
7.8% derived for this company beta 0.69 (1254d vs the S&P 500) · cost of equity 7.8% = 4.7% risk-free + 0.69 × 4.5% premium · treated as all-equity cost of debt not derivable; risk-free + 1.5pts assumed; no market cap; capital structure assumed all-equity
Fair value
$49.50
-0.2%
At the market's assumptionsCurrent price $49.59Enterprise value 103.0B
Bear $33.56 (-8.1% growth)Bull $73.60 (1.9%)
Today's market price is inside the range · band = your growth ±5pts, same model · the market itself prices -3.1%
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Present value of each projected year, Y1–Y10
44% the 10 forecast years56% terminal value